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Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."

Request for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."