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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress is expected to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Several concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would serve as guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not seen the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. One proposal involves Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard units rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he concluded.