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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new approach from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, endure.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.